Forecasts from abrdn Global Macro Research
Every year, around this time, abrdn’s Global Macro Research team shares their thoughts on the most important issues for investors to pay attention to. They predict what could dramatically change the situation in global markets and affect your investments. In 2025, analysts suggest looking at the world “one economy, one risk at a time.” So let’s take a look at what’s next.
1. United States (USA)
• Politics: Starting this month, the Republican Party controls both the White House and Congress. This could lead to changes in government spending and taxes, which will initially boost economic growth a little.
• Inflation: Expected to be around 2.5%. ⏳ This means that the Federal Reserve will likely pause interest rate cuts (around 3.5%-3.75%).
In short, this means relatively stable prices for consumers, and for businesses – some predictability in financial planning, but without the “cheap” credit that could accelerate company growth.
• Risks: Tougher import tariffs and immigration restrictions could slow growth again.
2. Regional conflicts
• Ukraine: The new US president promises to end the war in 24 hours, but the situation is too complicated. The most likely scenario is an unstable ceasefire.
• Middle East: Sanctions against Iran and escalation around Israel, Lebanon and Hamas are possible. Such actions affect oil prices and investor sentiment.
3. International trade
• US vs China: There is a threat of raising tariffs to 60% on Chinese imports, but a more realistic figure is in the range of 35%-40%.
• China’s response: Further yuan depreciation (10%-15%) possible, as well as export restrictions on key minerals. ⚙️ The trade war will affect global supply chains.
• Asia: Vietnam and Malaysia, which are integrated into Chinese chains, will feel the pressure, while India may gain additional benefits.
4. Emerging Markets (EM)
• EM central banks: Due to currency fluctuations and political uncertainty, some countries (e.g. Indonesia) may delay interest rate cuts.
• Winners and losers: Those with flexible economies and diverse sales channels will win. Those dependent on China or the US may face additional risks.
5. Mexico
• Gains from “decoupling”: Mexico has already become the largest supplier of goods to the US, as Washington reduces its dependence on Chinese imports.
• Risks: The US president’s tough rhetoric on immigration and tariffs is creating uncertainty in the market, but the main focus of the conflict is China for now.
6. Eurozone
• Politics: In Germany – early elections due to the collapse of the coalition, in France – budget difficulties and resignations of government officials.
• Rates: The ECB will most likely continue to lower interest rates due to the risk of recession. If the US and the EU do not agree on tariffs, the situation will be complicated.
7. Japan
• Stable growth: The technology sector (robotics and microchips) keeps the economy in good shape.
• Inflation and yen: Headline inflation is slowing, but wages continue to rise, and a weak yen stimulates exports. So the Bank of Japan has room to raise rates.
8. United Kingdom
• Taxes and spending: The new budget increased taxes and borrowing, which increased bond yields and provoked political criticism.
• Next steps: If borrowing costs increase or the economy slows, the government may resort to even more stringent measures.
Conclusion
The world in 2025 is rich in both opportunities and risks. The main task of an investor is to diversify his portfolio, monitor global changes in politics and trade, and be ready to react quickly to any “surprises”.
❗ Tip: Regularly read analytics from leading research centers, including abrdn reports, consult with experts and apply your own analysis to protect and grow your capital.