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EBRD Deal Could Transform Ukraine’s Capital Markets — Here’s How

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EBRD Deal Could Transform Ukraine’s Capital Markets — Here’s How

Ukraine has taken a major leap toward a modern, transparent capital market. 📈

On 11 July 2025 the National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC), the Ministries of Economy & Finance, the National Bank, and the EBRD signed a Memorandum of Understanding to build a vertically integrated market infrastructure — from trading and reporting to clearing, settlement, and custody. 




Why it matters 🤔



  • One-stop pipeline ➜ fewer hurdles, faster settlement.

  • Full transparency ➜ investors track every stage in one system.

  • Credibility boost ➜ EBRD’s involvement attracts global capital.




“This is a cornerstone for economic recovery,” said NSSMC Commissioner Yaroslav Shliakhov. 




Benefits for business & state 🏢💲



  • Cheaper money: stronger competition pushes funding costs down.

  • New instruments: bonds, derivatives, IPOs on one platform.

  • Global standards: T+2 settlement, ISO 20022 messaging.




(EBRD’s total wartime support for Ukraine already tops €7.6 bn ≈ $8.4 bn.) 




Next steps 🔜



  1. Launch unified trading & reporting hub.

  2. Merge clearing house and CSD.

  3. Pilot with government bonds, then corporate securities.

  4. Beta-test with brokers and investment banks.





🔮 Possible market outcomes



  1. Bullish 🌟


    • Market cap triples by 2030.

    • First domestic IPOs go live on the new exchange.


  2. Base case ⚖️


    • SME loan rates fall 1–1.5 p.p.

    • Foreign investors’ share of gov-bonds climbs to 25 %.


  3. Bearish 🐢


    • Full roll-out slips to 2032 due to regulatory delays.





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